TFI Issues Assessment Of Wireless Broadband As A Competitor To Wireline Broadband

Austin, TX — Technology Futures, Inc. (TFI) predicts wireless broadband can be economically deployed on a reasonably large scale — perhaps 20% of households — to offer the types of broadband services that DSL and cable modems offer now: that is, speeds in the range 1 Mb/s and relatively bursty traffic. The report, Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband, by Lawrence K. Vanston, Ph.D. (President, TFI), provides an independent assessment of the potential for wireless broadband to compete with residential broadband services offered by incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs) and cable companies.

Discussing the report, Dr. Vanston states, "Over the next 10 years, we expect that residential broadband will migrate to very-high-speed (VHS) broadband, with much higher data rates (24Mb/s and above) and much more continuous traffic, such as video. Until significantly more spectrum is allocated, it will be difficult for wireless to compete with wireline for VHS broadband on a large scale."

The research was sponsored by the Telecommunications Technology Forecasting Group (TTFG), a consortium of telephone companies comprised of AT&T, Bell Canada, BellSouth Telecommunications, Qwest, and Verizon.

Key Findings from Assessment of Wireless Broadband as a Competitor to Wireline Broadband:

• Wireless broadband is expected to be economically deployed on a reasonably large scale — perhaps 20% of households — to offer the types of broadband services that DSL and cable modems offer now: that is, speeds in the range 1 Mb/s and relatively bursty traffic.
  
• Over the next 10 years, residential broadband will migrate to very-high-speed (VHS) broadband, with much higher data rates (24Mb/s and above) and much more continuous traffic, such as video.
  
• VHS wireless broadband deployment will likely be limited to niche applications where landline broadband is expensive or not available, and for mobile applications.
  
• Making up for revenues lost to competition for voice services and standard broadband acts as a further incentive for ILECs to deploy fiber to provide VHS broadband and video services.
  
• With additional spectrum and further technical progress, wireless broadband may compete with wireline for VHS broadband as well, but this will probably take a decade, long enough for the economic deployment of wireline VHS broadband.

This report will be of interest to:

• Incumbent Local exchange carriers
  
• Competitive LECs
  
• Cable TV companies
  
• Internet service providers
  
• Telecom equipment manufacturers
  
• Regulatory personnel
  
• Depreciation professionals
  
• Property tax professionals

Report details and ordering information is available at http://www.tfi.com/pubs/r/r02006_awbcwb.html.

SOURCE: Technology Futures, Inc.